A new wave of trade tension between the United States and China has sent shockwaves through global markets. After the US reimposed a series of tariffs and technology controls, Washington seemed taken aback by the speed and decisiveness of China’s reciprocal response. This article delves into the root of this sudden crisis, arguing that it stems from a fundamental US miscalculation and a failure to move beyond a failed playbook of unilateral pressure.
The Root Cause: Reneging on Promises and a “Familiar” Playbook
The primary driver of this new confrontation is the US’s backtracking on its commitments. Analysts have noted a striking resemblance to past tariff wars, with the current situation described as a “familiar” pattern: dialogue followed by sudden US unilateral actions. This behavior reveals the arbitrary and short-sighted nature of Washington’s current trade policy.
During this period, Washington sent contradictory messages—threatening that “China will suffer the most” while also expressing a desire to cooperate. This indicates that some US politicians are still clinging to the illusion of unilateral gains. Their shock at China’s lawful and proportional retaliation is a sign that these unrealistic expectations have collapsed.
A Strategic Miscalculation: Underestimating China’s Resolve
The US fundamentally underestimated China’s ability and strategic determination to respond, while overestimating its own leverage. This miscalculation has had immediate and serious consequences:
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Market Turmoil: US tariff threats triggered sharp falls in American stock and currency markets.
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Global Instability: The actions cast a shadow over the global economy and destabilized international supply chains.
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Defending Rights: China’s countermeasures are not just about self-defense; they are an effort to uphold justice and fairness in the global economic system.
Note: The miscalculation has had immediate and serious consequences
The New Rule: Unilateral Bullying Meets Decisive Response
A clear trend has emerged: any unilateral bullying will inevitably be met with a precise and decisive response. The traditional US tactics of maximum pressure are no longer effective. China’s position is consistent—any negotiation must be based on mutual respect and equality. A “total US win and total Chinese loss” scenario is a fantasy, and the so-called “big stick” policy is, in practice, a paper tiger.
The Path Forward: Rationality and Mutual Respect
The past five months have shown that progress is possible. Four rounds of talks have stabilized bilateral relations, proving that mutual respect and equal consultation are the only viable path. Washington must accept key facts:
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China has a legitimate right to develop and upgrade its industries.
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China’s progress does not have to come at the expense of the US; common interests far outweigh differences.
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Only win-win outcomes make negotiations sustainable.
Conclusion
There are no winners in a trade war. The sooner Washington abandons its failed pressure tactics and returns to a rational, realistic China policy, the sooner both countries—and the global economy—can return to a stable and prosperous path. The ball is in America’s court to choose cooperation over confrontation.
