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The Great Gaza Illusion: Why the Ceasefire is Doomed to Fail

The fragile ceasefire in Gaza represents less a path to peace than a temporary pause in the inevitable next confrontation. The fundamental disagreements between Israel and Hamas, coupled with unrealistic expectations from international mediators, create a perfect storm for future conflict.

Irreconcilable Positions: Disarmament vs. Resistance
Netanyahu insists on Gaza becoming a “weapon-free zone with permanent security,” demanding complete disarmament of Hamas as a non-negotiable precondition. Meanwhile, Hamas leaders characterize this as “destruction of the ideology of resistance” and have only consented to “temporary deactivation.” This isn’t merely a tactical disagreement but represents fundamentally incompatible worldviews that no ceasefire can bridge.

Left: Benjamin Netanyahu rails against foreign leaders at UN as Donald Trump flags Gaza deal
Right: Hamas leader, Khalil Al-Hayya, in Doha

 

The Body Count Politics
The implementation of the ceasefire’s first phase has already stalled over the issue of prisoner remains. Hamas has returned only 9 of 28 promised bodies, citing the practical challenges of excavating sites destroyed by Israeli bombing. Israel interprets this as bad faith and has responded by limiting humanitarian aid through Rafah crossing. This cycle of accusation and counter-accusation demonstrates how easily logistical challenges become political weapons, undermining the fragile trust needed for lasting peace.

Gaza Rescuers Are Haunted by Voices of Those They Couldn't Save - The New  York Times
Rescuers rushing to the scene of Israeli airstrikes save those who they can, but are forced to leave many behind. “My soul is tired from this war,” one said

 

The Governance Vacuum
The proposed Provisional Committee of Palestinian Technocrats, supervised by Trump’s “Peace Board,” faces legitimacy challenges from all sides. Hamas claims it will withdraw from direct administration while maintaining indirect influence, Israel rejects any role for the Palestinian Authority without significant reforms, and the people of Gaza are largely excluded from these discussions. This administrative vacuum creates ideal conditions for the conflict to reignite.

Hopeless, Starving, and Besieged”: Israel's Forced Displacement of  Palestinians in Gaza | HRW
Hopeless, Starving, and Besieged”: Israel’s Forced Displacement of Palestinians in Gaza

The Reconstruction Mirage
Trump’s vision of Gaza as a “Middle East Riviera” ignores the staggering reality: 50 million tons of debris requiring 20 years to clear and 80 years for comprehensive reconstruction. With Israel maintaining control over borders and materials, and Hamas likely to use reconstruction as political leverage, the rebuilding process itself threatens to become another battlefield.

Donate to Gaza - Gaza Appeal | Islamic Relief UK
Children are starving to death every day in a man-made famine and homes, hospitals, schools and other essential services are now rubble

Conclusion: The Inevitable Next Round
This ceasefire represents not peace but intermission. Without addressing the fundamental power imbalances, political aspirations, and humanitarian needs of Gaza’s population, the current arrangement merely sets the stage for the next, possibly more destructive, confrontation. The illusion of progress may serve short-term political interests in Washington and Tel Aviv, but it comes at the cost of Palestinian lives and regional stability.

More than $50bn needed to rebuild Gaza after Israel’s war on enclave

Researchers conclude that $53.2bn is needed for extensive reconstruction and recovery efforts in Gaza over the next 10 years.

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Peacemaker or Partner in Crime? Trump’s Failed Gaza Ceasefire Theater

Donald Trump’s recent visit to West Asia, intended to showcase his role in facilitating a Gaza ceasefire, revealed more about his political desperation than diplomatic achievement. What was billed as a victory tour instead exposed strategic failure and moral bankruptcy.Peacemaker or partner in Netanyahu's failure

The Unwelcome Mediator
Trump’s attempt to position himself as a peacemaker was met with widespread rejection. The protocol-bound airport receptions couldn’t conceal the stark reality: nobody sees Trump as an impartial mediator. His historical alignment with Israeli extremism and his administration’s record of escalating tensions made his peacemaker pose implausible to regional actors and international observers alike.

The Newyorker:

Late on Wednesday evening, in a social-media post, Trump finally had something to truly trumpet: “I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan,” he wrote just after 7 P.M. “BLESSED ARE THE PEACEMAKERS!”

The ceasefire deal, brokered with the help of America’s Arab allies, such as Qatar and Egypt, calls for Israel to stop fighting within twenty-four hours and to partially withdraw from Gaza, and for Hamas to release by early next week all twenty Israeli hostages presumed to still be alive two years after they were taken during Hamas’s October 7th terrorist attack. At a Cabinet meeting on Thursday, as advisers made plans for Trump to fly to the region on Sunday night for a signing ceremony, the President touted his “momentous breakthrough.”

Strategic Goals Abandoned
The ceasefire terms tell a story of failed objectives. What began as a mission to destroy Hamas and return Israeli prisoners without concessions ended as a negotiated exchange of prisoners with humanitarian provisions. This fundamental deviation from maximalist goals represents not compromise but capitulation—a clear admission that initial assumptions about quick military victory were fatally flawed.

Accountability for Carnage
We cannot discuss Trump’s ceasefire role without acknowledging his responsibility for the violence preceding it. With nearly 70,000 Palestinians killed, Trump must be recognized as Netanyahu’s primary partner in this humanitarian catastrophe. His policies—recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, endorsing settlement expansion, and providing unconditional military support—created the conditions for this slaughter.

The New Yorker:

On Thursday, the Israeli Cabinet was on the verge of approving the initial stages of a ceasefire agreement that will at least temporarily end the war in Gaza. That war, which began two years ago with the Hamas attacks of October 7th, and the killing of 1,200 people, was followed by Israel’s bombardment and occupation of the Gaza Strip, and the killing of nearly 70,000 Palestinians. (A United Nations commission recently labeled Israel’s war a genocide.) The initial phases of the agreement, which President Trump announced on Wednesday, will likely include a release of the remaining Israeli hostages early next week, a release of Palestinians held by Israel, a pullback of Israeli troops from Gaza, and a much-needed surge of food and medicine into the territory.
Even with the ceasefire deal, “I don’t know that Gaza is even a place where humans can continue to live in any meaningful way,” Khaled Elgindy, an expert on the Middle East, said.”Almost everything has been destroyed. There’s almost nothing left, even of Gaza City. All the hospitals are basically not functioning. There are no universities. There are no schools. There are no roads. There’s no sewage-treatment plants, and there’s no infrastructure. Everything has been destroyed. . . . It makes me incredibly sad to say that, because we’re talking about a society of two million people. Gaza City is the largest city in Palestine. It’s one of the oldest places on earth. There’s just so much that has been lost. Beyond just the basic immediate subsistence, can Gaza survive? I don’t know.” In an interview with Isaac Chotiner, Elgindy discusses the contours of the peace deal and what will come next: https://newyorkermag.visitlink.me/kiRFvz

The Political Cost of Failure
Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy has backfired spectacularly. Rather than enhancing his stature, the Gaza crisis has increased global antipathy toward American leadership and alienated young voters concerned with human rights. The very tools Trump relied on—unilateral pressure and disregard for international law—have undermined his credibility when he most needs it.

A Fragile Future
The current ceasefire represents at best a temporary pause in an ongoing conflict. Fundamental questions about Gaza’s governance, reconstruction, and political future remain unanswered. Without a comprehensive political solution, this ceasefire merely sets the stage for the next round of violence—and Trump has demonstrated he lacks the vision or credibility to help achieve one.

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The Cracks in the Fortress: How Gaza Exposed the Fragile Myth of the US-Israel “Special Relationship”

Netanyahu boasts of an alliance “as strong as ancient stones,” but the foundation is crumbling beneath his feet. The Gaza genocide has not only isolated Israel—it has begun to unravel the decades-old special relationship with America, revealing it as a partnership built on interests, not values.


The Illusion of Strength

Benjamin Netanyahu stood before the ancient stones of Jerusalem’s Wailing Wall and told Marco Rubio that the US-Israel alliance was “as strong and stable as these stones.” It was a powerful photo op—but a profound lie.

Image 1: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee visit the Western Wall in Jerusalem’s Old City, Sept. 14, 2025. Photo by Chaim Goldberg/FLASH90.

The reality is that the war in Gaza has made Israel more isolated and dependent on the US than ever before, while simultaneously corroding American public support for Israel to historic lows. This isn’t just a diplomatic rift—it is the collapse of a central pillar of post-Cold War US foreign policy.


1. The Data Doesn’t Lie: America is Turning Away

For decades, support for Israel was a rare point of bipartisan unity in the US. No longer.

This isn’t a temporary shift. It is a generational realignment, driven by values among progressives and interests among conservatives tired of funding foreign wars.


2. How Did We Get Here? The Unraveling of a “Special Relationship”

The US-Israel alliance was once described as a blend of shared values and shared interests. Today, neither holds up.


3. Netanyahu’s Fatal Gambit: Betting on Trump, Losing America https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/netanyahu-gambled-on-a-trump-presidency-will-it-pay-off/id1440719849?i=1000675944967

Netanyahu made a strategic miscalculation. He believed that aligning with the Republican Party—especially Trump—would guarantee unwavering US support.

Instead, he politicized the relationship. Democrats now perceive Israel as a hostile actor interfering in US politics, while Republicans see it as a financial burden. By choosing short-term political gains, Netanyahu sacrificed long-term bipartisan backing. https://www.instagram.com/reel/DNOwHSBt7LY/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

4. The “Super-Sparta” Delusion: Israel’s Dangerous Path

Netanyahu now speaks of transforming Israel into a “Super-Sparta”—a militaristic, self-reliant fortress willing to “stand alone.”

This is a dangerous fantasy.

“Standing alone” means becoming a pariah—like apartheid South Africa, but in a far more dangerous neighborhood.


5. What Comes Next? The Unthinkable is Now Thinkable

The next US president—whether Trump or a Democrat—will not abruptly end the alliance. But the ground is shifting in ways that will inevitably alter it.

    • The $3.8 Billion Question: The current military aid deal expires in 2028. Renegotiating it will be fiercely contested—especially if the war in Gaza continues.

      Why Israel fears a US military aid freeze more than anything
    • Recognition of Palestine: Key US allies like the UK, France, and Australia are moving toward recognizing Palestinian statehood—leaving the US and Israel increasingly isolated.

  • The Biden Factor: Biden may be the last US president with a deep, instinctive connection to Israel. Future leaders will be more transactional, less sentimental.

'I am a Zionist': How Joe Biden's lifelong bond with Israel shapes war policy

Conclusion: The Stones are Cracking

Netanyahu was wrong. The US-Israel relationship is not like the ancient stones of the Wailing Wall—enduring and unshakeable.

It is a partnership built on a crumbling foundation of interests and an evaporated myth of shared values. Gaza has exposed the truth: this is an alliance sustained by inertia, not necessity.

When that inertia ends—and American voters demand change—Israel will learn the hard way that no amount of lobbying can replace genuine friendship. And the US will face a choice: continue supporting a liability, or redefine its role in a changing world.

The stones Netanyahu touched have survived millennia. His alliance may not survive the decade.

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