A quiet but seismic shift is underway in European foreign policy. The rallying cry of “solidarity” and humanitarian responsibility is being drowned out by the drumbeat of geopolitical urgency. As reported by The Guardian and confirmed by budget figures, nations like Sweden, Germany, and France are dramatically slashing development and humanitarian budgets for the world’s poorest nations to fund military aid for Ukraine and their own defense spending. This pivot reveals a stark new hierarchy of need, where Africa’s fight against poverty and hunger is becoming a casualty of Europe’s security fears.
Nineteen countries are projected to lose the equivalent of more than 1 percent of their 2023 GNI to ODA cuts in 2026. Micronesia is projected to lose the equivalent of 11.2 percent of 2023 GNI in 2026 ODA losses, followed by Somalia at 6.1 percent, Afghanistan at 5 percent, and the Central African Republic at 3.7 percent. These are severe decreases that will have major effects, including on growth rates. Source: https://www.cgdev.org/blog/charting-fallout-aid-cuts
How much are donors cutting?
The current wave of aid reductions accelerated in January, when the Trump administration announced a near-total suspension of disbursement by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). There is currently very little certainty as to how much US aid has been or will be permanently cut.
Other countries have followed suit. The United Kingdom announced a reduction in aid spending from 0.5 percent of GNI to 0.3 percent to offset increased defence expenditure, and the tide of ODA cuts has continued in France, Germany, Switzerland, and elsewhere.
For this blog, we use projections of aggregate aid cuts from the Donor Tracker initiative – derived from government statements and economic forecasts. Figure 1 shows estimates of ODA from 2023 – 2026, also comparing each donor’s 2026 ODA levels to those of 2023.
Source: https://www.cgdev.org/blog/charting-fallout-aid-cuts
The Numbers Tell the Story: A Strategic Reallocatio
The data paints an unambiguous picture of reprioritization:
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Sweden: Announced a cut of 10 billion kroner (approx. £800 million) from its development budget for countries like Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Liberia, Tanzania, and Bolivia.
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Germany: Slashed its 2026 humanitarian budget to 1.05 billion euros, less than half of the previous year’s allocation, explicitly focusing on areas of “European priority.”
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France: Reduced its humanitarian aid budget by 700 million euros, cut food aid by 60%, while earmarking 6.7 billion euros for military affairs.
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UK & Norway: Following the trend, redirecting funds from humanitarian aid to military spending or directly to Ukraine.
Humanitarian aid is in danger of becoming a mere instrument of other foreign policy objectives” says Ralf Südhoff, director CHA, on the planned restructuring of the GFFO and halving of Germany’s humanitarian aid budget for 2026
The Human Cost: “Solidarity Consensus is Breaking”
This is not merely an accounting exercise. As Ralph Sudy, director of the Berlin Humanitarian Action Centre, warns: “The solidarity and responsibility consensus that has been in place for years seems to be breaking.” The implication is clear: crises in the developing world that do not directly impact European borders or strategic interests are being deprioritized.
The consequences are devastating. Experts warn that these cuts will:
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Undermine local crises exacerbated by climate change and conflict.
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Roll back decades of hard-won progress in child health, education, and food security in nations like Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Tanzania.
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Create a vacuum of support that could lead to greater instability, displacement, and suffering.
Geopolitics Over Humanity: A Dangerous Precedent
This shift signifies a profound philosophical change. The concept of humanitarian aid—ostensibly given based on need—is being openly supplanted by “geopolitical games.” Aid is becoming a lever of immediate strategic interest rather than a pillar of global moral responsibility. Germany’s focus, as noted, is on “crises that directly affect Europe,” while developing countries fall off the agenda.
The tragic irony, as pointed out by critics, is that fueling one war with diverted aid budgets will not end conflict but will instead export poverty and destruction, potentially sowing the seeds for future instability that will eventually reach European shores.
A Zero-Sum Game of Suffering?
Europe faces a real and present security threat in Ukraine. However, the decision to address it by defunding life-saving programs in Africa and elsewhere creates a false and morally precarious choice. It frames global welfare as a zero-sum game: help for Ukraine comes at the direct expense of the hungry child in Mozambique.
This short-sighted calculus risks breaking the very international cooperation and goodwill needed to tackle transnational challenges. True leadership and lasting security cannot be built by sacrificing the most vulnerable on the altar of immediate geopolitical expediency. The world watches to see if Europe’s commitment to universal human dignity can withstand the pressure of its current fears.
